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November 16, 2005

U.S. May Face the Worst Financial Crisis In Over Twenty Years

David Walker, the Comptroller General of the United States, told USA Today that the federal government is heading towards the worst fiscal crisis since 1983. This is due largely in part to the promised Medicare and Social Security benefits that will be paid out to retiring baby boomers in the coming years.

A number of factors have contributed to the looming perfect storm of financial disaster. Congress and the White House have not done enough to rein in federal spending. They have discussed cutting $50 billion from the federal budget over five years, which consists of only 3 percent of the projected $1.6 trillion deficit for the same period. Without major spending cuts, tax increases, or both, the national debt will grow more than $3 trillion by 2010, to $11.2 trillion, according to the USA Today. The interest that will be paid on the debt in 2010, $561 billion, will be the same as the total budget for the Pentagon.

Many people are sounding the alarm about the pending financial crisis. Alice Rivlin from the Brookings Institution, said it will take an "economic scare" such as the 1987 stock market crash to spur action. Stuart Butler of the Heritage Foundation argues that tax revenue will remain stable as a share of the economy, but Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending will skyrocket. He further added, if the government wants to avoid a large tax increase, it will have to "renegotiate" the social contracts it has made with its citizens.

Many economists have painted a dim picture of the future of the American economy if significant, fundamental changes are not instituted. The negative consequences of federal government's current spending policy include higher interest rates, shrinking pensions, slower economic growth, a lower standard of living, less savings, declining stock and bond prices, and recession.

Posted by at November 16, 2005 02:27 PM

Reader Comments:

Don't worry folks. We have a fiscally-conservative administration in the Whitehouse. Ha ha ha ha...

/sarcasm off

Posted by: another Matt at November 16, 2005 02:37 PM

The repubican Party is a disgrace t the ideas f fiscal conservatism. That's why I'm here.

Posted by: Nigel Watt at November 16, 2005 03:08 PM

Would I be correct in saying that the less you rely on government, the less a financial crisis like this will effect you?

Obviously, something like this would effect everyone, but it would effect you less if you don't rely on government for anything, right?

Also, is effect the proper word or should that be "affect"?

Posted by: Paul P. at November 16, 2005 03:26 PM

It is affect. Something that affects you has an effect on you.

Posted by: Jon at November 16, 2005 03:33 PM

This news came as no surprise to me, whatsoever. There have been many that have been stating this for quite awhile. The U.S. is heading for a fiscal crisis mostly due to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. All attempts at reforming, or privatizing, both systems have been stalled mostly because of politics and the special interests. Just once, I like to have both the Democrats and Republicans put aside their bickering and do what is right for the good of the country and the people. That will not happen. Both parties want control of the issue. They want to claim the issue. In the meantime, the population suffers.

Posted by: Alex Pugliese at November 16, 2005 03:37 PM

Probably true in the short run, Paul.

However, the other side of the argument is that government directly controls our currency and indirectly controls our banking system, so we are bound to be hurt by anything they do to those things as part of their "fix." Also, any tax increases will affect all of us.

Finally, if the deficit ever leads to a default, there will be devastating consequences for our entire economy, no matter how "connected" or "disconnected" from the government one might be. For instance, I don't think the vast majority of Americans, including many Libertarians, really appreciate just how huge a negative change it would be if/when the dollar ceases to be the favored world currency. Rising deficits could lead to the dollar losing that prized position.

So while not relying on the government for anything is good, it doesn't prevent negative effects from economic fallout.

Posted by: Libertarian TV at November 16, 2005 03:42 PM

I've been worried about this for a few years now. Bush hasn't seen a spending bill he doesn't like. I figured we would hear more about this when the national debt surpassed $8trillion. Well maybe when congress has to raise the debt ceiling as it hits $8.314trillion, this issue will get some press. I expect this to be early 2006. It really scares me that the more fiscally responsible party is the democrats.
THIS IS THE DRUM TO BEAT.

http://zfacts.com/p/461.html


By the way, there are things you can do to protect yourself from the fallout of this. You should do so before mid-2006.

Posted by: steve at November 16, 2005 03:49 PM

There's no such office as "Comptroller General of the United States."

The correct title is "Comptroller General of the Government Accountability Office."

Posted by: KipEsquire at November 16, 2005 03:50 PM

Libertarians should run more explicitly on the idea that medicare, retirement benefits... must be phased out starting today.

Posted by: John Christopher at November 16, 2005 05:33 PM

This is what happens with excess government

Posted by: Roberto C. Alvarez-Galloso,CPUR at November 16, 2005 05:41 PM

We aren’t heading towards a financial crisis. We are heading towards a meltdown. Soon the US Dollar will be more valued for its BTU value when it is burned than it will be for its use as currency.

Posted by: Keith at November 16, 2005 07:24 PM

Hey lets get ride of the income tax (temporary measure from WWII) and watch government shrink and the economy take off like a rocket. Two birds with oine stone?

Posted by: Carl at November 17, 2005 01:11 AM

Fully agreed we are heading towards a major meltdown. Whether or not you are dependent or not dependent on the federal government, a government default will catastrophically effect you. Take heed of the massive hyperinflationary spiral in the Weimer Republic in the late 20's early 30's, where merchants were literally marking prices up every hour. There is a backdoor out of the trap, that being the use of silver backed currency, but even so doing, you still won't be able to escape the many other effects of the collapse.

There is only ONE way out of this trap. An immediate and unconditional austerity program. Let the pension guarantee fund die, defund all education, welfare and medicare benefits now. Etc, Etc, et al. Of course this won't happen, so I am taking what precautions I can.

Posted by: Mark B. at November 17, 2005 01:18 AM

All you need to you is to look at the U.S. National Debt Clock and here's the website:

http://toptips.com/debtclock.html

There you see what a budgetary mess we are in, and the national debt will continue on and on. None of these Republican or Democratic Party idiots will do anything about it.

Posted by: John D. at November 17, 2005 03:57 AM

I think that retirement benfit should continue for those who already invested, it is not fair taking away from those that are already middle age close to retirement. If you want to start with gradual toward the young people entering the work force. That would be ideal.

Posted by: Pasy at November 17, 2005 10:18 AM

The U.S. maintains about 300,000 troops in
a number of countries around the world. When will
the Libertarian party get around to telling the
people that we need to bring these people home from abroad and cut that cost from the defense budget?
###

Posted by: Fifth of November at November 17, 2005 03:47 PM

Seems like I recall someone was advocateing S.S. change to move a little of the FICA deductions into private managed accounts.

Who opposed the and who supported that idea?

Hummmm- Private individual retirement accounts not in federal government control, follows libraterian principals, so where was the LP?

Posted by: Stockman at November 18, 2005 02:41 PM

The federal government's budget is obscene! First, we have to REPEAL the recently passed Highway ("Special Interest Highway") bill. If the government funds the highways at all, it should be based on a STRICT MATHEMATICAL FORMULA (i.e. funding = (area of state)*(constant money value) + (population of state)*(constant money value), with more emphasis on population), no ifs, ands, or buts!

As for Social Security, I agree that it should be dismantled and changed into tax free IRA's (with a person's own choice of investments). However, the transition is VERY COSTLY. The first priority should be to get rid of the budget deficit. A good transition would be to change the investment type in Social Security from government bonds (which get really BAD interest rates) to a conservative mix of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds (if it is not very costly). If the startup costs are not too high, that will increase the revenue that gets into Social Security, and some of the excess revenue can be used to pay off the debt. Eventually, when the debt gets fixed, we can switch to tax-free accounts.

Posted by: Jason Nudelman at November 19, 2005 02:12 AM

U.S. May Face the Worst Financial Crisis In Over Twenty Years - 1985, then Reagan administration, along with Congress, cut taxes. Tax revenue increased along with the economy to set the stage for the exuberant growth of the 90's enjoyed by the Clinton administrations as the tax rates crept back up again. Supply side economics was the buzz word then and now the debate returns. Raise taxes Dems or not Repubs.
So how does one pay for the government we have?

Posted by: Stockman at November 20, 2005 05:34 PM
 


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