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October 25, 2006

LPHQ on the Campaign Trail - Update # 7

Bob Smither is in D.C right now, but we are busy here on the ground. Bob Barr will be stumping for Smither in Sugar Land, TX on Saturday, so we've been busy buying radio advertising for the event and ensuring that the rally will be a success. We've also been buying airtime for two related radio advertisements.

Smither has picked up two more notable endorsements, one from Erick Erickson at RedState.com and one from professional wrestler Glenn Jacobs (AKA Kane).

Polling numbers are all over the place right now. Some of the polls exlude Smither but include the write-in candidate. The campaign has an audio version of the poll here (worth the listen just for the comedy value), and some of the negative press for the Republican can be found here, here and here.

One reason the polling data is all over the place is because of the complexities of surveying on a write-in race. Excluding candidates obviously biases the results. There are reports that the Democratic pollsters are calling Smither the "Liberal" candidate, as opposed to Libertarian.

Despite of of this, the campaign took the last three somewhat credible polls and averaged the data to come up with a snapshot view of Smither's general election chances:

Since Lampson's numbers are expected to remain fairly stable, the key question for this race seems to be how the roughly 60 to 65 percent conservative portion of vote total is to be divided. An average of the last three published polls published on the race indicates:
Nick Lampson 39% (D)
Bob Smither 20% (L)
Key Write-in Candidate 12% (R)
Undecided/Other 29%

The undecided group is very conservative and has voted Republican in recent elections. If he picks up the remaining undecided votes, Smither will not only beat Lampson, but will be within one point of a majority vote total.


The local Internet media is interesting as well. Here's a great issue piece on Smither and here's another failed GOP spelling lesson.

We should be cutting a television advertisement tomorrow and finishing preparation for the Saturday event. I'll try to post an update again tomorrow, but I've got to get back to work right now.

Posted by Stephen Gordon at October 25, 2006 03:51 PM

Reader Comments:

How stupid are the Republicans for not dumping the hyphen lady and putting $1mm in advertising into the Smither race? If they lose the House by one seat Mehlman and whomever heads the House
Re-election committee should be fired by pissed off Republicans.

Posted by: Creech at October 26, 2006 04:16 PM

An update on Garrett Hayes' run in Georgia -- looks quite possible that he could be the spoiler:

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2006/10/25/1026metlibertarian.html

or

http://tinyurl.com/y7ohey

Posted by: Chip at October 26, 2006 07:51 PM

I guess being a spoiler is nice. I'd rather have a winner to point to. I guess after over 20 years my Libertarian pride is waning.

Posted by: RustyZ at October 28, 2006 05:57 PM

An update on Garrett Hayes' campaign in Georgia -- found this on the hometown paper site of a smallish city way outside Atlanta.

"Libertarian could prove spoiler in the race for governor"

http://tinyurl.com/yeayw6

I take this to mean there is a super-serious possibility that Mr. Garrett could throw the election into a runoff. The great news, then, is that the mainstream media here in the South would be forced to acknowledge the Libertarian Party and (choke) reveal some credible semblance of its platform. I believe Lew Rockwell would think that it is progress, considering.

Posted by: Chip at October 28, 2006 10:56 PM

RustyZ -- if you're registered as a Libertarian, you almost certainly have been so longer than I. Philosophically, I've been libertarian since the sixth grade. Only in the mid-1980s did I begin to get the nagging notion that there was something really wrong with my allegiance to one of two mainstream parties.

Don't give up now -- we finally are at a for-sure turning point. Only the dullest American now thinks they haven't been conned, politically. Both parties compete to outspend the other; neither will discuss with you any aspect of "foreign aid," much less why we borrow to fund it; citizens will be required to have and disclose an SSN in order to get a passport -- voila, instant national ID; both parties favor the trashing of personal freedoms "necessary" to fight the War on Terror. To sort-of quote Charley Reese, how can you have a war when there is no entity that can surrender?

Countless freedom-loving Americans were propagandized into believing that their mainstream party represented most of what they believed in. (Sound of buzzer on a quiz show when the contestant gives an incorrect answer.) The truth now is dawning on them. Even during the height of discontent about Vietnam, I believe there was not as much question, as now, about the direction our government is taking us.

Now is not the time to get weak-kneed in your support of the Libertarian Party -- quite the opposite. If all you do is educate others about the freedom-destroying aims of the Republican and Democrat parties/powers, you will have made progress. If any of them are intellectually curious enough to want proof, give them the link to Ron Paul's archives on Lew Rockwell, or his congressional speech archives. If you need those, I can post them here.

Posted by: Chip at October 28, 2006 11:23 PM

There's a minor typo on the front page. Voilating instead of Violating. Just thought you might like to know since it has "gone to press" so to speak.

Posted by: Anonymous at October 29, 2006 02:53 AM

Yes don't ever give up.


Give me Liberty, or give me death.

Posted by: Anonymous at October 29, 2006 02:55 AM

It's been 26 years that I've been a dues paying member of the LP. 26 years of "send us your money and we'll make real progress this time we promise" letters from the LP. 26 years of no declared Libertarians elected to any visible seat. I did not pay my dues this year. I did not renew my membership. I am still registered as a Libertarian but am considering changing that to Independent. I am frustrated, disappointed and disillusioned. If the LP was a stock I would have dumped it long ago. Hopefully Bob Smither or Bruce Guthrie (two respectable candidates whom I have helped financially) will get more than .05% of the vote. If not, I don't think I can hang on much longer.

Posted by: RustyZ at October 29, 2006 11:18 AM

Rusty - Lew Rockwell recently wrote a piece in which he opined that a major job of the party is simply to use our visibility to teach voters about liberty and the principles we espouse.

I am a regular poster in a heavy-duty non-political blog that has a huge following. These people are bitching a lot about their mainstream parties. In turn, I'm posting almost daily this month to recruit for the Libertarian Party and its candidates, but more so to get them to see that they are libertarian in their outlook. It is the perfect opening to refer them to Dr. Ron Paul's archives as well as Lew Rockwell's and those of my favorite columnist, Charley Reese.

I'm not a big cheese in the party -- I'm not even on a committee, so I can't speak for anyone about your contributions or notion to withhold them. But I certainly can and do exhort you to continue to spread the word to the uninformed about our party's philosophy.

Why do I butt in on your missive? Because I care about our continued and increasing loss of liberties as intensely as you did -- and hopefully continue to do. That fire is as important as your monetary contribution, IMO.

Posted by: Chip at October 29, 2006 08:59 PM

I have only been a Party member for about a year and becoming a bit disillusioned.

Here we are at election time once more and the country is pissed off that the Democrats and Republicans have led the country down the wrong path yet again. The differences between the two major parties are virtually non-existent. Staying in office and spouting the hyper-partisan line is all that seems to matter.

What a golden opportunity for us Libertarians to get the message out. When I speak with friends and acquaintances regarding what is going on in the country and the Libertarian philosophy they are very interested and in agreement with our ideas. So why are we not seeing or hearing any advertising to join the Party? Why are good guys like Joe Lieberman and John McCain and many others not throwing in with us? Are we not attracting sponsors to finance these efforts or what…and if not, why not?

I believe in the Libertarian Party line 100% as, I think, that a majority of Americans would…if they knew about us. We must do better or just fold up and go away.

Dick Slater

Posted by: Dick Slater at October 30, 2006 12:13 PM

"Why are good guys like Joe Lieberman and John McCain and many others not throwing in with us?"

Once you have sold your soul to the devil, it's hard to get it back.

Posted by: larper at October 30, 2006 01:57 PM

Hello all,
For those who recently brought their support to the LP, I would consider that efforts such as suffrage and abolition took generations.

I am certainly looking for positive steps out of this very election. But I am keeping it in a multi-decade perspective.

Some of you have already been involved for decades. And your constructive criticism is very much appreciated. (Please be candid.)

When looking at the LP as a "stock", I would consider that you are not comparing with many other stocks. The choice of parties and political efforts is somewhat limited. Yes, you might want to give your time and attention to other liberty minded areas. Issue groups, thinktanks, media. etc.

The Libertarian Party is despite everything my political home because the alternatives disillusion me so much more.
Hopefully the LP will see many reasons to smile soon in upcoming weeks and in the decades to come.

Posted by: LPiberty at October 30, 2006 02:01 PM

Smither is out of the race guys, he polled at 4% in the latest poll, and this one was unbiased.
There's not much of a shot left here. This one came down to money if those numbers are correct.
We still have other shots at this, don't give up. Even if we don't win any this year, we have a new voter base to build from.

Posted by: Nicholas at October 30, 2006 04:12 PM

Actually 4% isn't bad. It's about 3.90% more than most Libertarian candidates get.

Posted by: RustyZ at October 30, 2006 06:38 PM

Yeah, that maneuver to get Sakula-Gibbs "on the ballot" by having a special election to fill Delay's seat until January was one of the GOP's finest. Can you imagine the obstruction that the LP might encounter, if it ever tried to push such a crazy thing through? All this, just so people would have a correctly-spelled example for their write-in of Sakula-Gibbs in the REAL election ballot being cast on that same day! Sweet!

The poll that shows Smither at 4% is Zogby. I haven't been very impressed with the accuracy of Zogby polls in the past, or with the objectivity of the questions on their online poll (which I am periodically invited to take, along with thousands of others). Zogby got a boost during the Clinton years, by publishing results that were at odds with the Demo-leaning results that other pollsters tended to find. In the time or two that Zogby actually covered Libertarian candidates, the "strength" suggested by the poll results did not match actual electoral performance very closely.

I'm thinking that we still have no clue as to how well Smither is doing.

Posted by: James Anderson Merritt at October 30, 2006 11:20 PM

Of course we have no clue how well he's doing. If you studied the Alf Landon case, you'd know that polls don't mean anything. He night be on his way to DC for all we know.

Posted by: JayJay at October 31, 2006 12:27 AM

Zogby has been a little erratic lately.

Case to point. My own Florida Congressional District 24, featuring incumbent Republican Tom Feeney versus Democratic challenger Clint Curtis. Zogby polled this race a couple of days ago as being 45% for Feeney, 43% for Curtis, remainder undecided. I know damn well that is the biggest pile of bullcrap in the world, as this District is so overwhelmingly Republican, only a tidal wave on the order of 1932-34-36 or 1964 could result in a Democrat winning it. You really have to watch some of these polls, as they are simply not reliable.

Posted by: Mark B. at October 31, 2006 10:37 AM

Libertarians should rally behind Rex Bell where those last minute resources can do some real good:

http://www.lpin.org/index.php?q=node/58

Posted by: Joseph Knight at October 31, 2006 01:40 PM
 


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