After a lull of public attention with the occupation of Iraq, the fervor has returned. A report on the troop surge in Iraq, with evidence of progress and a failing Iraqi government, has pushed the Iraq conflict to the front pages of the nation's newspapers once again. The Sept. report along with an analysis of the future prospects of the Iraqi Prime Minister, will undoubtedly determine the course of the war in Iraq for the next few years.

But what will be the future of Iraq? With speculation for what the report may reveal and the tenuous nature of the Iraqi government that is all too obvious, the following years may already be set in stone.

Bush has already said that while he is President, the troops will not be leaving Iraq. This expounds on a recent foreign policy faux pas by invoking the Vietnam War for comparison to Iraq, which the Bush administration for years has denied a semblance between the two conflicts. Bush stated that pulling out troops too early would be committing the same mistake that occurred in Vietnam using the same arguments Nixon cited in prolonging his withdrawal from Vietnam.

The Sept. 15 report will undoubtedly do two things: List the accomplishments of the military in Iraq since the beginning of the surge, and give a derisive depiction of the failures of the Iraqi government. The report will probably also suggest that troops added in Iraq for the surge be moved to other locations around Iraq to help with security issues and further training of the Iraqi army.

As for Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki, the report might suggest increased pressure upon Maliki with implementation of timetables to keep the government on track – both things Maliki has exclaimed are unfair for him and impede progress in the government. But aside from these two things, little will probably be done in terms of helping the political progress of the Iraqi government because the U.S. refuses to relinquish control to the Iraqis as they have requested.

Because the administration will seize upon the military progress and use it to defend the 'stay the course' message, as well as declaring these are signs of imminent victory, we can expect public opinion on the war to increase somewhat. This will give the Bush administration the go-ahead to keep American troops in the region and continue the occupation, at least until his term is up. However, one can expect that either a Democrat or Republican President will do the same because of political motivations and an inability to muster the power to do anything else, and we can expect to see troops in Iraq for the next several years.

This is the danger of the report from Iraq. It is true that conditions have somewhat stabilized in Iraq because of military progress in some regions where the troop surge was focused. At least it appears that they have stabilized the instability. This creates the illusion that things are improving and will continue to improve, when in fact attacks have merely hit a plateau for the time being.

The problem with Iraq is that no matter how well things are improving, the conditions are so volatile and fragile that one large-scale attack could set off civil war at any time. This was the case with attack on the Golden Mosque in 2006, which set off much of the sectarian violence that we are seeing right now.

Because military progress is being emphasized while political failures are being ignored, a lack of infrastructure and political stability could possibly bring to disastrous ruin any military gains that may have been made. In fact, the political unrest has been the source of many of the troubles Iraq sees right now. Police are lining up with militias and U.S. troops say they are training police during the day who take part in the insurgency at night.

It appears the course of action in Iraq will not change even after the report, and the U.S. will still maintain the same course of action in the region because of what appears to be promising results from the surge. But in reality, these improvements will be overshadowed by a failure to address the Maliki's requests for more control over Iraq's internal affairs and less interference from the United States. Without relinquishing power, the Iraqi government will struggle to unite, and remain incredibly vulnerable to falling apart should another calamity occur. If this happens, all military progress will go back to square one, and the U.S. will find itself in the same situation it is in now, if not worse.

The only solution to the Iraq quagmire are the steps either side of the aisle fails to push: Increasing the role Iraqis play in their own reconstruction, and beginning to reduce the presence of the United States in the affairs of the Iraqi people by starting a safe withdrawal of U.S. troops.